Saturday 9 August 2014

It was all basic bricks in my day: part one

If there's one thing you're guaranteed to hear from the general public at an exhibit, it's some variant of "When I was a kid, it was all just basic bricks". And when it's just a well intentioned comment on the detail and complexity of your models, it's not a problem.

If there are three things you're guaranteed to see in the comments section of any mainstream news or comment article about Lego, it's these:
  • "When I was a kid, it was all just basic bricks" and its related cousin:
  • "All the sets come with instructions these days, and you can't make anything else with them"
  • "Lego is too expensive these days"
Is this a problem? That depends on whether or not these claims are true. The third was comprehensively disproved in a fantastic blog post by Andrew Sielen, along with the commonly held belief (even among AFOLs) that licensed sets are more expensive.

This time, I'll take a look at the claims that more sets come with instructions than in the past and/or you can't get basic brick boxes/buckets these days. Next time I'll try to see if today's pieces are more specialised and less useful than they used to be. To tide you over until that post appears, try reading New Elementary's excellent post on the matter. And in a third and final post in this series I'll summarise the findings and give my opinions on whether they're a problem or not.

Do all sets come with instructions? When people say this, they usually refer to the boxes or buckets of basic Lego bricks they had as a kid. These still exist! Multiple boxes/buckets of bricks are available right now, under the theme Bricks and More. However, most of them do seem to come with some instructions for suggested models. Let's be ultra strict - are there any currently available Lego sets with no instructions whatsoever?

It even comes with a brick separator in case you don't already have
at least 300 of them.

Yes! 10664 Creative Tower has no instructions, and is mostly 'basic' bricks. It would surely satisfy even the most diehard instruction and 'specialised' brick hater. [EDIT: And, as pointed out in the comments, every Lego store has an entire Pick a Brick wall dedicated to selling just bricks, which generally seems to be a third to a half 'basic' bricks.]

Ok, that's one example, but surely there were more of these instructionless sets back in the good old days? One simple way to see if that's true would be to find the proportion of sets released each year with instructions, and see how that has changed over time. This is relatively easy - it's possible to see a summary of the number of sets released each year at Bricklink, and similarly to see the number of instructions released each year. So we simply divide one by the other to get our proportions.


Conclusion: If you were a kid in before the in or before the 80's, you may be on to something when you say there are fewer sets without instructions, UNLESS you were a kid in the 70's, when it was about the same. But these numbers don't look quite right. Only three quarters of sets had instructions in 2013? In fact, the raw numbers state 154 sets without instructions, which just doesn't seem right. And indeed it isn't, because Bricklink counts a lot of things as separate sets that really aren't. For example, 75 of those 154 sets are the individual builds from the advent calendars, for which there aren't separate instructions listed. So we can't quite rely on these numbers.

A set, according to Bricklink.

Is there another source of set numbers? Yes. Brickset has a brilliant query builder that allows you to run custom queries of its database. I did a simple query for sets in the 'normal' category, which excludes things like keychains and weird promotional items, then used these numbers with the instruction numbers from Bricklink*. The percentages from this are more in line with what I'd expect:


Ok, apart from the 130% of sets in 1969 that came with instructions, the percentages are more in line with what I'd expect! And I think that's partly because the records for the 60's and early 70's aren't entirely reliable. [EDIT: I wasn't clear enough here that this is a problem caused by using numbers from different databases. Since Brickset and Bricklink don't always agree, particularly in the early years, the occasional weird result is not unexpected if you divide one set of numbers by the other]. If we ignore the 60's, the conclusions are more or less the same as before - the 70's were relatively instruction heavy, and since the 80's the proportion of sets with instructions has been increasing.

One more test. Let's look at the beloved basic brick boxes/buckets directly this time, and not worry if they happen to come with instructions for a few example models. From Brickset's themes, the ones that appear to be mainly comprised of these brick boxes/buckets, and that aren't Dacta or Educational sets, are Basic, Bricks and More, Bulk Bricks, Creator (pre-2007), FreestyleMake and Create, and Universal Building Set. So I did a query for these that excluded sets with fewer than 100 pieces, to get rid of odd promotional sets and polybags. Because Creator became mostly instruction sets after 2006 (albeit usually with 3 different models) I had to do a query for it separately, excluding sets from 2007 onwards, and add those numbers.

This seems to show that the number of basic brick boxes/buckets released has been increasing over time, with a slight dip down these past few years. But many more sets are released these days, so the more relevant quantity is the proportion of sets each year that are basic brick boxes/buckets:

Ignoring the 60's, we see that the proportion of normal sets each year that are basic brick boxes/buckets fluctuates between 0 and 15%, but on average tends to be about 5%, with a slight downwards trend recently.

So, what do we conclude? In this case I think we may be tempted to concede that Joe Public has a point - there seem to be more sets with instructions these days. I must admit I was surprised that most of the basic brick/boxes available today come with instructions, even if they're just a few example models. I don't think this is really a problem - you can always throw away the instructions after all! I've read that the reason that Lego stopped including back of the box pictures of alternate models on all sets (they were always there when I was a kid) was because they got complaints from parents that their children got upset because they couldn't build these models. So maybe the instructions are more common these days because people actually wanted them.

When we look at the average proportion of sets each decade that are basic brick/boxes, it's basically been hovering around 5% ever since Lego started including instructions with models. It looks to have been on the slide over the past 20 years, though this is partly due to the increase in total numbers of sets released. For example, the average number of normal sets released per year in the 70's (when the proportion of buckets was highest) was about 62, whereas in the 2010s it's been 387. If we take the 70's proportion of 6.4% and apply it to 387, we get about 25. To those complaining about the lack of such sets, ask yourself if there's a market for an average of 25 basic brick buckets/boxes every year? Has there ever been?

Final conclusions

First, let me say that if you disagree with any of the methods or assumptions I've used, then please leave a comment, especially if you can think of a better way. I want this to be as good as possible, and won't take it personally. Now, on to the conclusions:

If you were a kid in the 50's: Feel free to say there were fewer sets with instructions in your day - essentially there weren't any! [EDIT: See the comments for a discussion of whether there were actually instructions then or not. It seems at least that there weren't the modern, detailed instructions that we're familiar with today.]

If you were a kid in the 60's: Dig out your old sets and memories and help update the records, because the stats don't have a clear message to tell. We can at least say that there weren't any sets with instructions before 1964. [EDIT: Not quite, see above]

If you were a kid in the 70's: There were fewer sets with instructions in your day (72% of normal sets vs. 97% in the 2010s) but you actually grew up in a time of relatively many instructions compared to the following decades. There were slightly more basic brick boxes/buckets in your day (6.4% of all normal sets vs. 2.3% in the 2010s).

If you were a kid in the 80's: There really were fewer instructions in your day (55% of normal sets vs 97% in the 2010s) and you grew up in the least 'instructioned' time since instructions began. There were slightly more basic brick boxes/buckets in your day (4.3% of all normal sets vs. 2.3% in the 2010s).

If you were a kid in the 90's: There were fewer instructions in your day (64% of normal sets vs 97% in the 2010s). There were slightly more basic brick boxes/buckets in your day (6.2% of all normal sets vs. 2.3% in the 2010s).

If you were a kid in the 2000's: There were fewer instructions in your day (79% of normal sets vs 97% in the 2010s). There were slightly more basic brick boxes/buckets in your day (4.1% of all normal sets vs. 2.3% in the 2010s).

If you are a kid in the 2010's: Then why on earth are you reading this?? Go play with your Lego, and be glad you aren't a boring old fart who thinks this tow truck is better than this one.


I mean, really? Images from Brickset.

* Why carry on using the Bricklink instruction numbers? Simply because it's the most complete record.  Brickset only has the instructions that are provided by Lego Customer Services, which are woefully incomplete before the mid-nineties. Peeron is the other well-known source of instructions, but seemingly hasn't been kept properly up to date for about 10 years now, and hasn't had any new scans since 2010.


[EDIT: Purple Dave asked in the comments for a graph of absolute number of sets without instructions, so here it is:

The overall trend is similar to that of the number of basic brick boxes/buckets, which is encouraging.]

28 comments:

  1. Excellent. Personally I think people who criticize lego are people who are a bit behind with its evolution. Lack of imagination is a result of the rest of the toy industry in my opinion... License or not licensed.. you still get to build it.. meaning you have a set of bricks that can be handed down generations, always remain relevant and be built into something different.. If a child loves spiderman so much they don't want to change spidey's legocar.. at least they got to build it.. and a year later they will use the blue and red bricks for something else.

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    1. Thanks! That's the great thing about Lego - even for the kids who don't like to take their sets apart, Lego is still better than other toys because they get the experience of building it in the first place. And at least the possibility of building something else is always there if they change their mind.

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  2. Great to see something based on available data instead of people's nostalgic impressions. Most interesting is the change that came about in the late '70s at the time of the introduction of Town/Castle/Space themes. I look forward to the next installment!

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    1. Thanks caperberry! I love your blog by the way - been following it ever since you started.

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  3. We also have Pick a Brick these days - that accounts for the slight decline in bucket sets. PaB orders are always among the top ten (usually top five) best sellers on lego.com and in the LEGO Store... and if you really want to have fun with the math, you could count every possible Pick-a-Brick combination as a distinct instructionless bucket, meaning they account for 99.999999(it goes on like this)% of LEGO sets available today!

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    1. Hi Jacob. That's an excellent point, which I hadn't even considered - every Lego store has an entire wall dedicated to bricks without instructions! Regarding PaB always being in the best sellers - is that something you have some hard evidence for, or just something you've noticed? Maybe I'll have to start keeping track of it for a future post...

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    2. I work at a LEGO Store, and I've noticed PaB cups are consistently among our top ten sellers each week on sales reports. You can also see the top 25 sellers on shop.lego.com through a link on the right side of the page - their list is updated daily, so it can be a rich source of data if you track it for a while. Right now, for instance (on the US site at least), Green Baseplate is #3, Pick A Brick is #4, Blue Baseplate is #6, Basic Bricks Deluxe is #10, Studio is #12, and way down at #24 is the AT-AT, the only Star Wars set on the list!

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    3. That's really interesting, thanks! I checked the UK site and PaB is currently #2, Studio #13, Green Baseplate #16, Grey Baseplate #17 and Creative Bucket #22. A large proportion (10) of the rest are, bizarrely, keyrings, which don't feature at all in the US top sellers.

      I'll write more about this in my third summing up post but have edited this one to mention PaB a bit.

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  4. Thanks for posting this, very informative! In a sense, it's kind of LEGO's fault that their toys are perceived thus; the licensed theme sets are big moneymakers, and what company wouldn't heavily promote their profit centers to make more money? The average consumer only sees Star Wars, Super Heroes, and TMNT sets; only those who choose to dig deeper in the toy aisles or online will find the basic brick sets.

    The old catalogs from the 70's and 80's would promote the entire line of LEGO sets; as a kid in those decades, I was fully aware of the many different types of sets available. Nowadays, I don't see all this promotion included in every box. Maybe the kids see it all online, but do they know to look for it? And do their parents? If LEGO wants to change this perception, they need to promote it...

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    1. Thanks! You have a point about the catalogues - I haven't seen a decent one for years, and the little flyers with adverts for other sets don't seem to come with sets these days. Even when the instructions have adverts, it's generally for other sets in the same line. I wonder why? I guess it may be the internet, as you suggest.

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  5. There are two data points that I'd really like to see added to this. One is that we know that total number of sets with instructions have skyrocketed if only due to the fact that total number of sets is something like ten times what it used to be at the Dawn of the Minifig, but how has the total number of sets without instructions changed? Not as a percentage of the whole, but as a finite quantity (but please trim out the polybagged and CMF minifigs, as those shouldn't really count). The other is if you trim off every licensed set, how has the total number of non-licensed sets changed over the years?

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    1. Hi Purple Dave. First off, an apology that your comment has only just appeared - for some reason it was marked as spam and so it was only when I checked the spam folder that I saw it.

      I've added the graph of the number of instructionless sets at the end of the post. Is it what you were expecting? It basically looks similar to the basic brick boxes/buckets graph, which is reassuring to me.

      I've decided to deal with licensed sets in an entire separate post, so please keep reading!

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  6. First off very interesting. Thanks for doing this. The instructions results are exactly what I was expecting. The basic brick sets results were interesting. I think it was be worth while redoing to as number and percent of sets available for sale. My perception is that sets use to be available for longer periods and this might smooth thing out.

    Couple of criticisms. First, your point about there being no instruction before 1964 is completely dead wrong. For starts sets 1306-1310, 306-310, and 315-318 all have instructions are all pre-1964. This are the exceptions rather than the rule. Second, the fact the 1969 is a 130% suggests a methodology problem. Which in turn calls into question the rest of the result.

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    1. Thanks for the feedback. Good suggestion about adjusting the data by how long a set was available - I think it would indeed smooth things out, but I don't know if that data is available anywhere?

      You're right about the instructions. I'll edit the post! I shouldn't have trusted lugnet (http://www.lugnet.com/pause/chronology.html), though the official Lego timeline seemed to agree (http://aboutus.lego.com/en-gb/lego-group/the_lego_history/1960).
      So I'll do now what I should have done to start with, and consult Gary Istok's exhaustive and amazing Lego history guide (http://legocollectorsguide.weebly.com/). In Chapter 64(!) I found this:

      "From 1949 until 1979 many LEGO basic sets did not have detailed building instructions. Most of the instructions supplied by TLG were either only of completed models, or models with only about 4 levels of constructions. Detailed instructions that are familiar to LEGO collectors today were unknown until 1964."

      So I guess it's ok to say that there were no modern, detailed instructions before 1964, and that's what I'll change the post to say, with a note to come look at the comments for clarification.

      I did gloss over the 130% result a bit, it's true. Again, I'll edit it to make clear that this is the sort of problem one can expect when using numbers from two separate databases. I wanted a quick and dirty way to get the results, and short of cross checking each set individually between Brickset and Bricklink, I'm not sure there's much that can be done about it. As you say, the results are what you'd expect, so I don't think the method is too wrong.

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  7. You make excellent observations on many points. I have no problem with specialized sets, in fact I do enjoy MOCing Lego Constructor, I like how many different things can be made from one sets. However, I do have one bone to pick. When I got a box of Lego as a kid (1970's), it was mostly larger bricks (2x4, 2x8). I had no trouble building a larger house with the set, and I did it frequently, including fortresses for playing with my cowboys and Indians. Recently I thought that when I buy a "720 pcs set" for my kids, they will be set for life, too. My mistake, most of those bricks were small fleas and while you could build a house, it's only a very little one. Well it's quite possible that my rosy memories are decieving me, but I wonder, did the proportion of 2x4 and 2x8 bricks decreased in the "bucket sets"?

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    1. Hi pH! This is the sort of thing I'm looking at anyway in my next post, so I'll take a look at this just for you - stay tuned!

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  8. Part of the perception might also be the complexity of instructions. Back in the 80's a large set would have twenty maybe thirty instruction steps, in the 2010's a large set has maybe a hundred instruction steps. An analysis of instructions steps to number or pieces would prove that one; although getting the number of instructions steps might be a manual process of inspecting each instruction booklet.

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    1. Hmmm, that's something I hadn't thought about. Do you think it's the case that more/thicker instruction books leads to the impression that more sets come with instructions and/or that following the instructions is a bigger part of Lego these days? I certainly expect that instructions these days make up a greater proportion of the weight of the set than used to be the case... I feel some more number crunching coming on!

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    2. I know that when I was a kid, my brother and I got a few sets that were basically an assortment of parts, but that came with instructions that could be used to build several different models with no specific theme. Nowadays, though, the minifig is king. Once we started getting those, I had no use for generic, non-minifig sets anymore, and I suspect a lot of kids today feel the same way. Therefore, there probably is a trend towards sets where the contents are tailored for a specific build, and away from the "you can do anything" mentality.

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  9. The instructions are obviously a lot more detailed these days but TLG wouldn't intentionally add more pages to the instructions books (more pages, more cost, less profit) it's obviously been driven by customer feedback and demand.

    Whether thicker instruction books alters perceptions is a psycho-analysis question... I'm not sure how I'd go about putting numbers around such an analysis as it's not my area of expertise.

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  10. One factor is that when I go into a store here in the US, whether it's a Target, Walmart, K-Mart, etc., I'd say that about 80-90% of the sets there are licensed or standard Lego themes; there are very few of the bucket type sets. Maybe two or three. Now, add in Creator sets, and there are definitely more, but they're definitely in the minority. It's possible this is a regional difference, but it does seem somewhat consistent when I've been in other areas. And as was mentioned earlier, it's hard to blame TLG, since those are their big money makers.

    It could be argued that TLG is trying to change this perception with The LEGO Movie. Yes, there are licensed themes in there, but the movie has a running theme about the benefits of both free form creativity and using instructions to build models (as well as the downfalls of both). And how a child sees Lego versus how a parent sees Lego. Especially after being dumped into a plastic bin. I think that in general kids are far more willing to be creative with Lego, whether it is a licensed set or a bucket of bricks and parents are more looking at the end result, the set they're buying for their kids.

    So part of the perception is due to the parent's looking at the model and the price. The parent sees the set as only that model and thinking "If I spend $20 on this set, Timmy will build it, play with it for a while, and then it will end up in the toy bin and he'll never play with again it like all the other regular toys, and the money will be wasted." Whereas when they see the bucket, they think about how creative their child is/will become and that Timmy will become this amazing architect, and see it as a good investment, whether that is true or not. They just don't see the possibilites with the theme/licensed sets, it's a blind spot. The adult sees more what they would do with it, not what Timmy sees he could do with it. Timmy might not see that when he's in the store, he's looking at the current model. Now Timmy might end up tossing the set into a bin with other sets, but, depending on the child of course, he could very easily end up using those pieces to build his own dream model along with all the other pieces. The parent might see it, but could very well never realize that half of those pieces in Timmy's amazing model came from that themed set.

    This is all generalities of course. Some kids only do build the pictured model; some parents see the possibilites in licensed/themed sets (although I'd say most of those are AFOLs or at least remember Lego fondly). And one other aspect, is the longing and nostalgia of a "simpler time." Some things *were* simpler, but we tend to forget or gloss over those other things that were far more complicated. And in 20-30 years, people will be saying the same thing about the time we're living through now.

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    1. Hi JR. It's much the same in the UK at least - the vast majority of sets on shelves are licensed or themed.

      I think you have a very good point about parents who aren't AFOLs, or who weren't really into Lego growing up. I really do think it's a shame that TLG stopped including back of the box alternate models because it would combat the perception that the set will just be built once and kept that way. I mentioned above that people complained about them, but it could surely be made clear on the box that instructions for the alternates wouldn't be included?

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    2. Hi Big Sal,

      I, too, miss those alternate builds. And with the technology they have today, they could really expand this. They could have a few of the "action" shots, as well as a couple of alternate models, labeled as such, along with a QR code that could be scanned with a phone or tablet, sending them to a website with more alternate models, maybe even with instructions there. I know in some of the Brickmaster books that have come out, they had alternate model instructions on a website. And for alternate instructions, instead of the extremely complete and simple ones, they could actually make them a little more difficult, for those that say they're too simple now.

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    3. Hey Sal,
      I realize this reply is about a year too late, but I believe the reason TLG stopped printing alternate back-of-the-box models is not as simple as "parent's compaints." TLG does an exhaustive amount of testing on sets before they are released to market nowadays, and these are things which they simply didn't do in the past--or at least, not as throroughly as now. This includes everything from clarity of the instructions, to quantifying certain build tasks or techniques based on age, to testing model stability, to baking completed sets in a oven to simulate the effects of age and weathering to a set on display. Not to mention stricter toy safety guidelines to adhere to. As TLG began to research and fine-tune this testing process, it became more costly for each model. Whereas before they likely sat around, took a set and set it in front of their designers to build an alt model, voted on their three favorites, then slapped them on the box. To do that now, each alt model would have to be submitted to those high safety and performance standards, to ensure the best play experience. As I said, that gets costly.

      Additionally, If I remember correctly the alt models as box art seemed to end about the same time that TLG was recovering from their near failure as a company--a time when they were examining every step of their production process. These rigorous testing methods were likely developed to help improve that process and drive toward the end result of improved play experience; as a natural result of tighter standards, such alt models were no longer compliant with TLG's own internal policies without incurring significant costs. So, it really is all about the money :P

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    4. Hi rodiziorobs, good to see you here even if it is a bit late :P

      You're right of course, it probably all comes down to money in the end. Still, TLG must be making more than enough money these days to cater to my personal whims :P

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  11. BTW, I think I'd actually prefer the 332 Tow Truck. If it was still MISB, that is. They don't go for much used on Bricklink, but nobody has MISB listed or sold in the last six months, so I bet I could sell that sucker for enough to buy the UCS Tumbler that just became available today...

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  12. Brilliant read, quite thorough considering the source data is mostly fan supplied and supported. I have found a few 50's looking matchbox style cartons with at least one containing a set to build a small, stackable almost modular building. The piece count was pictured along the sides with the instructions printed on the back of the box. So some sets, however limited by a piece count of only 20 or so did have some basic instructions for a single creation!

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